Tuolumne Meadows, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

506
FXUS66 KHNX 200534
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1034 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Warmup continues Thursday before trending back to seasonal
averages.

2. Monsoonal moisture brings 5 to 15 percent chance of
thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada beginning Friday.

3. Slight risk of extreme heat next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Regionwide temperatures continue to trend upward. All climate
sites reported average to above average temperatures today,
with Fresno reaching triple digits. As for tomorrow, the
National Blend of Models (NBM) shows high temperatures peaking
in the low- to- mid 100s Thursday before returning back to
seasonal average this weekend. Outside the Mojave Desert, NBM
indicates a 70-90% probability for high temperatures above 100
degrees in the San Joaquin Valley, with the highest probability
south of Hanford.

Along with a cooldown, a transition to south-southwesterly flow
this weekend brings the next monsoon push. Thunderstorm
probabilities return Friday, peaking around 15% along the Sierra
Crest, then increasing a few percentage points Saturday as the
southerly moisture transport strengthens. According to NBM, no
rainfall is in the forecast for most of the area, except for a
40-50% probability for a trace or greater rainfall around Mount
Whitney.

Looking past this weekend, both the Climate and Weather
Predicition Centers anticipate a return to above average
temperatures. The former indicates a 50-60% probability for
above average temperatures by the end of next week, while the
latter places a slight risk of extreme heat in the Days 8-14
outlook south of Madera County. The precipitation outlook,
meanwhile, remains near normal for the rest of August.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

public...ND
aviation....BSO

weather.gov/hanford